Advance Scouting 4.0: Sectional Opponents

Advance Scouting
1. Tournaments

2. Lesser Rivals

3. Local Opponents

A couple weeks ago, I began a series looking at what next season's opponents might look like. In the last three installments, we looked at our tournament opponents, some of our opponents who are further away, and some who are local. This week, we'll look at our Sectional opponents.

I'll be using a stat called WRS to look at each matchup. You can find an explanation here. Let's jump in to some opponent analysis.

Jimtown

WRS: = 0

When Do We Play: Aug. 17

How'd We Do Last Year: The first time we played Jimtown, it all came down to #2D, and we lost 2-3. In the Sectional Semi-Final, we played much better tennis, and were able to walk away with a 4-1 win.

Who Do They Return: Starting at the top, they return impressive sophomore Holden Price, who handed Byeong one of his three losses last season. Byeong was able to beat Price in two sets in the Sectional, but Price is a solid player and looks like he will play #1S. Moving up from #3S should be Michael Gray, who challenged Sol in the Sectional with powerful groundstrokes. At #1D, Ben Jankowski returns and at #2D, we saw a combo of 3 different players who all return: Hunter Price, Isaac Pope and Ben Clarke. That gives the Jimmies 6 players returning who have varsity experience.

Projection: The Jimmies are our first match of the season, and a challenge at that. They are going to make sure that we are on top of our game right from the beginning. They have a great senior class and sophomore class that will lead this team. As I do these advance scouting reports, I'm excited about how fun of a season this one will be. There are so many matches where I don't know how they will turn out, and can't even begin to guess. Those type of matches are the ones that are ultimately memorable. Both matches against the Jimmies were memorable last year.

Goshen
WRS: -1.5

When Do We Play: Aug. 20

How'd We Do Last Year: In the regular season, we lost 5-0, with 3 matches going to 3 sets. In the Sectional Final, we prevailed 3-2 (with 2 matches going 3 sets :-)

Who Do They Return: Many great players. They return last year's #1S, #2S, and #3S - Hudson Kay, Evan Beck, and Luke Rush. They also return Logan Troyer from #1D. Apparently, it looks like Rush will be moving to #1D. They have several good JV players moving up to varsity this year as well.

Projection: No doubt, this is our toughest match of the season. I'd be surprised to see us win this one early in the season, and even at the end of the year it will be a challenge. The three seniors returning are great, committed players and this Goshen team has motivation from last year after losing in the Sectional Final following a 19-1 regular season. Unfortunately for us, that motivation will be aimed directly at us, because we happened to be the team to upset them last year. Hopefully we can be inspired by this team to pick up our own games throughout the season.

NorthWood

WRS: +2

When Do We Play: Sep. 11

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we defeated the Panthers in our one matchup by a 4-1 score.

Who Do They Return: One player, but he's an important one. NorthWood returns just Jared Hoffman, who played #1S for the team last season.

Projection: This team lost 9 players from their varsity and JV last year to graduation. That's going to make this a very different one for the Panthers. If I think I've had lineup questions, I'm sure that the Panthers have had many more. This year, this is a match we'll be favored in. After another year of experience, we'll see.

Fairfield
WRS: +2

When Do We Play: Sep. 21

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we defeated the Falcons 4-1 in our only matchup. Our only loss in that match came at #1S, where stellar senior Adam Yoder defeated Jesse.

Who Do They Return: Only 2 varsity contributors, juniors Clayton Bender and Isaac Miller. Clayton Bender took Sol to 3 sets last year, and plays a very methodical style of tennis. Miller played at #2D.

Projection: This is one of the few teams that we'll have more experience than. But we play them at the end of the season, our very last dual match. Like all the schools in our Sectional, they are so well coached that they'll be getting experience and practice and learning how to win by the end of the year. Still, this will be a match we'll hope to win.

Advanced Scouting 3.0: Local Opponents

Advance Scouting
1. Tournaments

2. Lesser Rivals

3. Local Opponents

A couple weeks ago, I began a series looking at what next season's opponents might look like. In the last two installments, we looked at our tournament opponents and some of our opponents who are further away. This week, we'll look at some of our local opponents.

I'll be using a stat called WRS to look at each matchup. You can find an explanation here. Let's jump in to some opponent analysis.

Concord

WRS: +1

When Do We Play: Aug. 25

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we defeated Concord 4-1. It was very much a case of our more experienced team getting the better of a less experienced opponent. By Sectional time, Concord had improved enough to win the Concord Sectional.

Who Do They Return: Almost everybody from their varsity. Crucially, they should return all three of their singles players. Will Boyer, a sophomore who played #1S last year as a freshman, is one of the stronger returning #1S players in the area. He defeated Jesse in three sets last year in a well battled match. Mitchell Boyer most likely returns at #2S. At #3S, Alex Dias lost to Sol last year without winning a game. However, by Sectional, I believe the Minutemen had moved Riley Huffer to #3S. So that may be a possibility during this season as well. Returning from doubles are both #2D players, Nathan Hermon and Braden Fish.

Projection: This is a team returning a lot of potential. Last year was a down regular season for the Minutemen, but they were able to turn it up and win their Sectional. That was an exciting event that no doubt got them excited for this season. It's a good bet that they've put some work in and are prepared for the new season. While we don't have as much experience, we did have a lot of success in this matchup last year, including in the JV ranks. This is another one of those matches that could go either way, and therefore should be a great learning opportunity for our team.

Northridge

WRS: +1.5

When Do We Play: Aug. 18

How'd We Do Last Year: The Bruins defeated Northridge 5-0 last year, marking the only time in BC tennis history we've swept the match from the Raiders.

Who Do They Return: Again, this is a team that didn't have a lot of varsity experience last year. They had an unusually down year, but return 5 players from the match we played them in. Most promising is Simon Grevengoed, who played #2S last year but actually moved up to #1S for our match (because Northridge's normal #1S had been at a funeral). He challenged Jesse for the first set, before falling 6-0 in the second. But he has all the shots. They also return their #2D and #3S.

Projection: Again, this is a matter of who steps up to play when the match is on the line. We'll have two similarly aged teams, but there team has more varsity experience. It should be an interesting matchup at #1S, as both Simon Grevengoed and Byeong played #2S last year. I also am interested to see how we shape up against their doubles lineup. And as long as he's still playing, we should get to see our good friend Aadarsh Patel again. 

Westview

WRS: +2

When Do We Play: Sep. 8

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we defeated the Warriors 4-1, losing only at #1S, where Westview senior Stephen Gierek has now graduated.

Who Do They Return: They return 5 players from their varsity, and they are 5 quite talented players. Heading up that group of returnees is Andrew Yoder. Last year he played #1D, losing to Hans and Simon in our dual match but defeating them in the Individual Sectional. He played with 2 different partners in those matches, Jeryl Weaver in the loss and Zach Shrock in the win. Weaver and Schrock both return, along with last year's #3S player Trey Zabona and a #2D player Austin Hostetler. Talking to Westview's coach, I know that much like our team they have many questions about a lineup this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Yoder switching to #1S, where he will be quite successful. But, then again, perhaps he and Schrock will team up at #1D and make a push for further advancement in the Individual tournament.

Projection: This is a deceiving match because it looks like we have a huge advantage in players that won their matches and return to the team. But in reality, the Warriors return a lot of experienced players. I feel like this is a common theme this year, how quickly will our players become confident in playing varsity tennis. This is a match we can win. This is a match we could lose. These are the matches that make tennis season fun.

Elkhart Central

WRS: +0.5

When Do We Play: Sep. 17

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we pulled out a 3-2 win thanks to Sol's third set comeback at #3S.

Who Do They Return: #2S player Andrew Salmon looks to move up to #1S, and #3S Curtis Hill probably moves up to #2. That gives them two very solid singles players. #2D of Christian Lankford and Adam DeShone will probably move to #1D. They defeated Ethan and Ryan last year in a close match. That gives the Blue Blazers 4 returning varsity players.

Projection:  In what is a repeated theme in these previews, this match is going to be really close. We've got some good talent, and should be able to give the Blazers a run for their money but they have an extremely talented senior class. I think they'll be a motivated team this season as well, having lost on a Sectional title last season. This match will be a fantastic test. And it will reunite us with a tennis brother, now playing at Elkhart Central, Lucas! We can't wait to see him again!

Advance Scouting 2.0: Lesser Rivals

Advance Scouting
1. Tournaments

A couple weeks ago, I began a series looking at what next season's opponents might look like. Last we looked at our chance in the tournaments last year. This post will look at some of our dual match opponents.

I'll be using a stat called WRS to look at each matchup. You can find an explanation here. Let's jump in to some opponent analysis.

LaVille
WRS: ----

When Do We Play: Aug. 24

How'd We Do Last Year: Match was cancelled due to rain.

Who Do They Return: Because we didn't play them, we don't know exactly who will return. Last year, their #1S player was Brandon Haisley. He will be back this season, as should their #1D. However, both of those teams lost easily to other opponents we beat last year.

Projection: The bottom line is that LaVille is a rebuilding team right now. They are continuing to get new players interested and passionate in tennis. They have a smaller team, so they continue to be challenged in getting their new players experience. This will be a match that gets closer and closer as the years go by.



Fremont
WRS: +1

When Do We Play: Aug. 27

How'd We Do Last Year: Bethany won 3-2.

Who Do They Return: Lot's of good players. Last year they only had one senior on their team. Everybody will be moving up, but they all have experience. They'll be led by a great senior and sophomore combo, Logan Miller and Evan Trusty. These guys are just excellent tennis players. Logan has split two varsity match-ups with Byeong, with Byeong winning last year in two sets. They also return Brandan Arnos, who took down Sol last year. So this team is going to be very strong at 1, 2, and 3 singles. They also bring back all their doubles players. The JV was somewhat weak last year, but they are only going to need to bring up one player if the rest of their team comes back. Should be a great year for the Eagles.

Projection: This is going to be a great matchup this year. These are the type of matches that are a lot of fun. This is one that I'll be circling as a marker for how good we can be in this coming season.


Prairie Heights
WRS: +1.5

When Do We Play: Sep. 1

How'd We Do Last Year: Bethany won 5-0.

Who Do They Return: They may well return everybody. Last season, their coach didn't write in the years of their players. But I know from previous years that their #1S and #1D were all juniors last year. So they should have a team with a lot of experience under their belt, including their #1S player, Tyler Johnson, who will be playing his second season at the position.

Projection: While the team has a lot of experience, they have not experienced a lot of success. In our 5-0 win last year, we only lost a total of 4 games. As a team. So this is a match that we will be favored to win, especially since it will be at home.


Triton
WRS: +1.5

When Do We Play: Sep. 5

How'd We Do Last Year: Bethany won 5-0.

Who Do They Return: They only return two varsity players, Gavin Eads from #2S and Mace Eads from #3S. They also only return four JV players. So that's a total of 6 players returning to the team in total. They will need to find new players to field a full varsity team.

Projection: With so few players returning, this will be another match that we will be expected to do well in. Over the years however, Triton has been a team that has played us very close. Whoever comes out to play for them will compete with skill I'm sure.

Blackhawk Christian
WRS: +2

When Do We Play: Sep. 15

How'd We Do Last Year: Bethany won 4-1.

Who Do They Return: They Braves return 3 out of 4 doubles players, losing one from their #1D team. They also return #3S players Drew Hall, who gave a great challenge to Sol last year, especially in the second set. From the JV team, they return Jospeh Angelo from #1SJV, who gave a good challenge to Jacob Gonsalves last year.

Projection: What's really interesting about the Braves is how their returning players got better as our match went on last year. Drew Hall began to figure things out in the second set, as did the #2D pair of Graham Gnagy and Ross Norton. I don't know where these players will play next season, but I know that it's all about getting better, and they showed that they could last year during the midst of their matches. Add in four year varsity player in Jared Fiedler (who might slide from #1D to #1S) and this should be a very solid team for us to face next year.

Outlook
Looking at these five teams, teams that are outside our close geographical area, we see a wide variety. Fremont should be one of the better teams we face during the year. Blackhawk will be somewhere in the middle. Other teams are rebuilding. But these are teams we have to be careful with. Because they aren't near rivals, we can often forget about how good they can be. We know Goshen, Jimtown, Fairfield, and NorthWood - they are Sectional rivals we always want to beat. We don't have the same motivation against a LaVille, Fremont or Blackhawk, because we don't think about them as often, see them at lessons, or anything else. They'll be good and we'll have to be ready.

Advance Scouting 1.0: Tournaments

Last season, we competed in 3 different tournaments, and came away with 3 trophies. This season, we've added a new tournament challenge to the mix as well as saying goodbye to 5 of our varsity players. So what do our chances look like in the tournaments we play? Let's explore that today in the first segment of Advance Scouting.

Let's dive into the tournaments...

Tournament #1: Western Invitational

This is a new tourney for us. Our opponents will be Western, Northwestern, and Lafayette Central Catholic. I cannot apply the WRS for these matches because we did not play these teams last season. But here is what I do know. 

Central Catholic had a relatively successful season last year. The only match results I could find were wins, but I did notice they were in a tournament with Western last year and finished 7th of 8th. So I'm guessing there were some losses sprinkled in there too. They return 6 of the 8 players who played varsity. The Knights #1S player last year was a freshman who had good success. They should be a solid opponent in the tournament.

The Northwestern Tigers finished last season with an 8-8 record. The only common opponent we had was Eastern, and the Tigers beat them 5-0 just like us. I don't know who they return or where their strengths are. But I do know that they got beat 4-1 by the hosts of this tournament, Western. 

So Western, the hosts, are the top challenge in this tournament. They are coached by my brother, so I know more about them. Their #1S player, Pranav Haran, was an All-District selection last season. They also return 6 of 7 varsity players from last year. They had a successful season last year, winning their conference and losing the Sectional to Kokomo, 3-2 In a match that came down to a 3rd set in #1D. They had some bad losses last year as well as some good wins, which is normal for a younger team. This will be a great early test in the season, as Western will most likely be a district ranked team when we play them.

The newness of this tourney makes it exciting to me. I can't wait to see how we match up.

Tournament #2: Merrillville Invitational

This was one of the tournaments that we won last year. The field was a bit down last year, and it came down to us and Centerville. We won 3 of the 5 matchups we had against the Bulldogs, and so won the tournament. 

This tournament can usually be split up into two tiers. Teams that contend for the title and teams that are usually in the middle.

In previous years, I've seen this tournament won by Triton, Centerville, it is always closely contended by Portage. These teams tend to be the top threats. Centerville was a young team last year, so they may be the team to beat this year after coming in 2nd last season.

In the middle tier are teams like Highland, Wawasee, and Merrillville. Each of these teams have up and down years. Last year, we didn't get drawn very often with these three schools, so I'm not sure what they will have returning this year.

This tournament is always a fun one because we don't know the opponents as well. They are most from the western part of the state, and we don't play many of them during the regular season (besides Triton). It is a great opportunity to just go play our game, have fun, and see how it turns out!

Tournament #3: Wabash Invitational

This is a tourney that we do know really well. We've played the same teams in this tournament since it started and all of these teams have had years where they have contended with us closely and beaten us. 

We always begin this tourney with Taylor, and like the last couple of years, this should be our biggest challenge. They return their entire varsity team from last year. And while we defeated them 4-1, all of the singles matches were close. Camden Kimbler, who will be a senior at #1S, defeated Jesse in a very close match last year and is the picture of consistency. Which is a hallmark of Taylor's teams: consistency. A year of experience and a season of practice will make this a very close match.

Our second opponent is Wabash. It feels like the same old story, we defeated them last year but they bring back 5 of their 7 players. They will be a bit more polished and experienced this coming season. They will all have to move up a position however, as they lose their #1S and #1D players. Last year, their #3S player, Luke Mattern, gave a great challenge to Sol and played a great match as a freshman. It will be interesting to see his strides this year.

Eastern didn't have a very successful season last year. I don't really know what they will be like this coming season, because I think many of their players were seniors. So this will be a bit of a wild card match. Luckily, we play them last, so we'll have some time to see what they'll look like during the day of the tournament.

Tournament #4: Sectional

This is going to be a great competition this year. No doubt, Goshen should be one of the best teams we face this season. But, I'm going to dedicate a whole post to previewing the Sectional. So we'll save that!

So, 4 tourneys and 4 fun chances to compete with our brothers. Writing this makes me ready to get underway. Too bad it is raining today!

WRS Explanation

A note of explanation. I made up a statistic to help measure how close a match will be for us in the following season. I call it the WRS. It works like this. It works like this. In any given matchup, I look at three things.

1. How many of their players that return won their match? 
For every singles player that an opponent returns and won their match, we get a -1. For every doubles player that returns and won, we get a -0.5.

2. How many of our player that return won their match?
Same as above, but if we won the match we get a +1 or a +0.5.

To analyze the stat, the higher the score the easier the match should be for us. The lower the score, especially if it is negative, the harder a match will probably be.

Confused yet? It's actually simple, here's an example from last year, using Fremont.

Here's the score report:
#1S - Jesse Amstutz - 2-6, 1-6 - Blake Trusty (12)
#2S - Byeong Min Lim - 6-2, 7-5 - Logan Miller (11)
#3S - Sol Brenneman - 6-4, 5-7, 2-6 - Brandan Arnos (11)
#1D - Hans Miller/Simon Hurst - 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 - Wade Regedanz (10)/Evan Trusty (9)
#2D - Ryan Duckworth/Ethan Lapp - 6-1, 6-2 - Jeremy Seiler (11)/Matt Armstrong (11)

So at #1S, both players were seniors. So they don't return... no points awarded in the stat. At #2S, Byeong won, so that is +1 for the Bruins. At #3S, Brandon Arnos won, so -1 for the Bruins. After tallying singles, the stat is a 0.

At doubles, we get +0.5 for Simon winning and returning, and another 0.5 for Ethan winning and returning. 

If you add all that math up, the Fremont match is a +1. That means we should have a slight advantage in this matchup. That slight advantage doesn't tell the whole story though. Our players will be moving up positions and they return most of their team. This will end up being a tough match because of those factors.

Okay, that's a long explanation. If it doesn't make sense, don't worry. The simplified version is this...
- The higher the score, the more favored Bethany would be in the match this season.
- The lower the score, the more favored our opponent would be.

Advanced Scouting 5.0: The Complete Picture

If you've been following the previous posts . . .

1.0 - Tournament Rivals

2.0 - Lesser Rivals

3.0 - Local Rivals

4.0 - Sectional Rivals

you'll have seen a preview and statistical breakdown of the opponents we play this year. In most of those matches, I used the WRS (Winners Returning Stat) to give a look at how close the match will be. As way of review, WRS simply is a measure of players who return to the team AND won their match in the previous season. If you want a full breakdown, see the example in Advanced Scouting 4.0.

This stat is actually really accurate in showing how close a match might be. The last season I truly used it was 2010, and it accurately predicted our 5 closest matches of the season. So, as a final way of fun for the preseason, let's use the stat to predict our matches. Which ones will be the closest and most difficult?

So here's the breakdown. Only Fairfield and Westview return more players who won their varsity matchups against us last year. However, on the flip side of those matches we won the JV matches handily.

NorthWood and Concord are both dead even matches. However, of those two NorthWood returns 6 of 7 varsity players and had a successful JV challenge against us.

Then we have a bunch of close matches where we have a slight advantage in returning players. Goshen stands out there as being a match where we actually lost 3 of the top 5 positions on JV, showing that Goshen will also have a deep, talented team.

I think what is amazing about this chart is the top of the chart. This shows that our closest matchups of the season should be Fairfield, Westview, NorthWood, Concord, and Goshen.

3 of the top 5 are in our Sectional. The other 2 are local rivals, followed closely by Northridge, another local rival. So here's the cool thing about the schedule. We'll play a bunch of close matches against teams that we know well. That should make for an epic season, win or lose. A number of memorable matches, moments, and opportunities for us to come together around one another.

It also means that north central Indiana tennis should be pretty good this season! Let's go get 'em, starting this Monday!

Advanced Scouting 4.0: Sectional Rivals

Today we'll  look at the last opponents we have to cover in this series. Our closest rivalries, our Sectional opponents. I have to say, these are also going to be some of the best teams we face all season.

A note of explanation again, specifically for Jesse (:-). The WRS is simply a count of how many varsity players are returning to a team that won their match the previous year. For example, here's the match vs. Triton last year.

#1S - Abraham Thorne - 1-6, 1-6 - Dean Howdeshell (12)
#2S - Jesse Amstutz - 6-4, 6-2 - Jared Fisher (11)
#3S - Sol Brenneman - 6-2, 6-1 - Gavin Eads (10)
#1D - Joel Gerig/Hans Miller - 7-6 (5), 7-5 - Lucas Shafer (12)/Darrin Harrell (12)
#2D - Parth Patel/Landon Weldy - 6-3, 6-3 - Austin Sellers (11)/Alex Eib (11)

At #1S, both players do not return, so no points for either team. At #2 singles, Jesse won and returns for us. So we get +1. Same for Sol Brenneman at #3 singles, so that makes +2. We won #1D, but only Hans returns so we get +0.5 for that, and then also +0.5 for Landon at #2 doubles. So in total, we have a +3 WRS against Triton, making it likely we should win again this year. Make sense? It's a handy little stat :-)

If you missed previous posts, you can catch up on the series below:

1.0 - Tournament Rivals

2.0 - Lesser Rivals

3.0 - Local Rivals

4.0 - Sectional Rivals

And of course, the disclaimer! I don't know everything, so don't forget that these previews are just for fun!
Things I do (usually) know:
- The players they have coming back.
- How those players faired last year.

Things I don't know:
- Any new freshman joining the team.
- Any transfers joining the team.
- The amount of work current team members put in.
- The improvement of current team members.
- Coaching changes, lineup philosophies, etc.

Here we go!

Last season we defeated the young Jimtown team 4-1. But they are an interesting team, returning a lot of their young players for another varsity season. Their talent starts at the top of the lineup, where Mikey Pawlak probably returns for another run at #1 singles. He had a great match last year with Abe Thorne, defeating Abe in two close sets. He'll be a strong player that the Jimmies will build behind. 

The rest of the matches, from #2S through #2DJV, were won by the Bruins last year. Jesse Amstutz started his great season last year with a brilliant 3 set win at #2 singles. The other matches were not as close. This is the match we start the season with, and it's a match that we'd love to set the tone for the season with. The Jimmie team will have experience coming back and we need to meet that with focus and readiness. As of right now, this is the match we are getting ready for. 

And then in the same week we will match up against Goshen. This is going to be a tricky match, a match we'll need to be on our toes for. They return much of their lineup from last season, and most of our matches with them last year were close. They were also the only JV to defeat our top 5 JV positions (we won the complete match, but if you just look at the top 5, then the Redskins won). 

Hudson Kay returns at #1 singles where he lost a one break of serve in each set to fall to Abe Thorne. Luke Rush returns as well, after defeating Sol last year. The Redskins switched up their doubles throughout the year last year, but ended up having successful teams. Goshen was the runner-up in the Sectional last year. They'll be one of our toughest and closest matchups this year.

Or, maybe even closer yet will be our matchup against NorthWood. The only player they lose from last year's varsity is #1S player Mitchell Keiser. That's 6 of 7 coming back, and last year they won both of the doubles matchups in the regular season. There is serious talent on this Panther team. You'll notice that the WRS here is 0, meaning that this seems to be an even match coming back next year.

We're very talented too. But this is the type of match where our work, our practice, our focus will matter. When we're conditioning this week, we're getting ready for matches like this. When we're trying to hit the back corners of the court over and over in the Federer Drill, we're trying to drill in patterns of play to prepare for these matches. When we're hitting one hundred serves in a row, when we're challenging each other, when someone asks you to step up and work harder . . . this match is why. Or if not this match, the Goshen match. Or if not the Goshen match, then the Jimtown match. Or if not Jimtown then . . .

the Fairfield match. The WRS stat here is telling. Fairfield returns just as many players as us (4), but they have the advantage of players who won their matches last season. That point comes mostly from their talented, pinpoint accurate #1 player Adam Yoder. Although we defeated the JV fairly easily last year, this match is one of only 2 on the season where our opponent returns more winning players than we do (the other is Westview). 

After looking at the stats, the returning players, the incoming JV players, one thing is clear to me. The best teams on our schedule are probably in our Sectional. Which is going to make the Sectional "epic." Which means than any 1 of the 5 teams can win (including us!) Which means that we've better get working hard today. Not tomorrow. Not next week. Today. 

It also means that our long term goal is the important one. We may drop an early match to Goshen, Jimtown or NorthWood. We may drop our late September match to Fairfield. But that's not the point of the season. The point of the season is to learn to embrace and push one another to deep levels of commitment and talent. In this deeper commitment, in facing adversity together, in seeking God together, in praying together, we will continue to get better. And the hope is that the season will end in sheer and savage joy.

Advanced Scouting 3.0: Local Rivals

Today, we're going to take a look at some closer rivals. Due to distance, these are teams that we get pretty excited to compete with year after year. Some we have had good success against, others we've only beaten once or twice.

If you've missed any of the previews in this series so far, here's the first two segments.
Advanced Scouting 1.0: Tournament Rivals
Advanced Scouting 2.0: Lesser Rivals
Advanced Scouting 3.0: Local Rivals

And here's the disclaimer! I don't know everything, so don't forget that these previews are just for fun!

Things I do (usually) know:
- The players they have coming back.
- How those players faired last year.

Things I don't know:
- Any new freshman joining the team.
- Any transfers joining the team.
- The amount of work current team members put in.
- The improvement of current team members.

- Coaching changes, lineup philosophies, etc.

The first non-Sectional local rival we'll face, in the first week of the season, are the Raiders. They are losing the most dominant piece of their team from last year, All-District player Josh Garfein. They are often a tricky team to predict. They get a lot better from year to year as most of their players only play tennis and they focus on lessons during the offseason. Last year they were a young team, and they shifted their lineup right after they lost to us. So how they lineup will be interesting again this coming season. Will Ted Field move to #1? Has someone else gotten a lot better? Right now, statistics would favor the Bruins here, but will that hold come season?

After Northridge on Tuesday, we'll play Concord on Saturday. We've only ever beaten the Minutemen once. And we've got an even 0 with them on Winners Returning. Landon and Hans were able to capture doubles victories last season, while Sol fell in singles. The varsity matches were all close affairs, settled by breaks one way or the other and 2 that went into 3 sets. However, the JV matches were not as close. This is another match that will be decided on whose worked harder in the offseason. We should have an advantage at the new to varsity positions, but it's going to be tight.

Triton is always an interesting match. Played on a Saturday, it seems they are always missing some piece of their team - and then we often end up winning 3-2. Last year, they had to switch around some of their doubles players and we captured a 4-1 win. However, we lost a critical match to them in #1D at the Merrillville Tournament, and they went on to celebrate a tournament championship there while we finished a few points behind. Coming into this season, they lose their All-District performers at both #1S and #1D. The positions they return were all positions that we were able to take victories at. Again, we won JV matches easily.

A few years ago, Westview didn't have a very good team. They were a bunch of young freshman and sophomores and we went to Emma and came home with a 5-0 win. Then last year they came to Goshen and played excellent tennis, extremely improved and left our courts with a 3-2 win. And that freshman class from a couple of years ago, well they are now upperclassmen with strong skills. Andrew Yoder, a very consistent player, returns and will probably man #1S. Meanwhile, Stephen Gierek pushed Sol to the brink and the probable #1D combo of Taylor Eash and Zack Schrock took down Parth and Landon. That means we enter this match with a -0.5 WRS. It's one of only 2 negative scores for us in the upcoming season. The saving grace for this match might be that our JV handled theirs, which should give us an advantage in whichever spots are matchups between varsity newcomers. All that said, statistically this comes up as our second toughest match of the upcoming season (more on the toughest match next week).

Our last local rival is the Bremen Lions. They return 5 players to their varsity from last season, as they were also a young team. That experience should serve them well as they might be able to leave their singles lineup completely untouched. And with that lineup last year they were able to get one point off of us, defeating Sol at #3S. Hopefully Sol will be ready to play for this one with that in mind! Again our JV outperformed the Lions, so that bodes well for the new positions, but they will only have two new players. This match was a fairly simple one last year, but it looks much more complicated coming into this season.

The bottom line, especially when I start fleshing out statistics like this, is that we always have to be ready to play. There are no easy victories, especially as we start getting to closer and closer rivals. Next week, we'll take a look at our toughest matches of the season, which will undoubtedly come against our Sectional Rivals. But Northern Indiana may be filled with great teams in this upcoming season, let's go be one of them!

Advanced Scouting 2.0: Lesser Rivals

Last week, I began a season preview starting with opponents that we would play at our 2 tournaments during the season. You can find that preview here.

Today, we'll take a look into some of our lesser rivalries. What I mean by lesser rivals are teams that are either far away from us, or we haven't played them for too long, or the series with them has not included close matches. So, they aren't rivals that we think about throughout the season quite as much.

As far as looking toward next season, here's the same disclaimer from last week:
Things I do (usually) know:
- The players they have coming back.
- How those players faired last year.

Things I don't know:
- Any new freshman joining the team.
- Any transfers joining the team.
- The amount of work current team members put in.
- The improvement of current team members.
- Coaching changes, lineup philosophies, etc.

One more thing before we jump in. For each team, I'll have a chart. On the chart will be listed two stats that I have found to be key for projecting what a team will look like. The first is a stat I made up several years ago that I call WRS (Winners Returning Stat). For a detailed look at what puts this stat together, go to this article. But quickly, it is a measure of players returning who won their particular match the year before. The higher a positive score, the higher likelihood of a Bruin victory. The lower a negative score, the higher the likelihood that we will get beat. 

The other stat is a JV Score. WRS only takes into account the varsity. Combining that with the JV scoreline gives a good view of how a match could turn out.

Remember, this is an overview. Things change come the season. Teams get better. We (hopefully) get better. Players get stronger, faster, more mature. This is for fun. The matches are for real.

Over the past 4 years we've actually had several epic matches with the Eagles. The first 3 years were 3-2 for whoever won, each going right down to the wire. Last year, the Eagles didn't field a complete team. However, their returning #1 player is excellent, Niko Rongos. Abe played outstanding in that match and was still down in the 3rd when Abe fell to the ground with cramps.  It will be interesting to see who Columbia City has added when we play this year.

Another Eagle opponent on our schedule is Fremont. This is going to be a fun match next season. Last season we handled Fremont decently, but they return a lot of talent. Logan Miller played #1S for part of last year, defeating Byeong Min Lim in an excellent 3-setter while Byeong was filling in for an injured Abe Thorne. But the thing that makes this better is that I do know about a transfer for the Eagles. Blake Trusty, who played #2 and #3 singles for Angola last season, is moving to Fremont for his senior year. That means that the Eagles should have a strong singles lineup, and its doubles teams will probably remain intact for the next season. What a chance to improve. This should be a good matchup.

Against Prairie Heights we find one of our higher WRS's. However, last year they were debuting basically a brand new team. Almost every player last year was playing their first year of tennis (or so). Those type of players improve rapidly. With almost the entire varsity returning, we can expect a closer match this season.

From one of the highest WRS's to the highest possible. Against Laville last year, we played 7 freshman and won each match. So all of our winners are returning. This again is another team that returns a majority of their lineup, but it wasn't the strongest last year. 

The Marian match last year was the most disappointing of the season. We just didn't come out and play well. We had no history against the Knights, and weren't ready for them. They were a really good team. Senior Jack Julien had been one of the best players in the area for several years. With his graduation, they'll be a bit weaker this year. You can see that although we lost to the Knights last year, we actually have a +1 in the WRS. We were close to victory last year, hopefully we'll get this one at home this year.

Blackhawk is a really interesting case for next year. We won 4-1 last year. We've got a +2 in the WRS. However, look at who returns... it's basically the top of their lineup. And look at some of the scores. Jeremy Hoover lost a close match to Abe. What does that translate to this year as he stays in the same position and we have to move someone up? These are the type of questions that I love to see answered on the court.

Which is where the matches happen! I hope you enjoyed taking a look at some of the teams we'll run into this coming season. But above all, I hope you are enjoying getting better at tennis this summer. Just a couple weeks left until we hit the ground. Let's hit it running and ready to go!

Advanced Scouting 1.0: Tournament Opponents

Welcome to a July summer special, previewing the teams that we will play throughout the season. Let me start with a disclaimer: I don't really know anything about these teams.

Well, okay, let me list the things I do (usually) know:
- The players they have coming back.
- How those players faired last year.

And the things I don't know:
- Any new freshman joining the team.
- Any transfers joining the team.
- The amount of work current team members put in.
- The improvement of current team members.
- Coaching changes, lineup philosophies, etc.

That said, it's fun to know a little bit about the teams we'll encounter next year. So this series will start with teams that we face in tournaments this coming season. We play in two varsity tournaments, the Merrillville Invitational on September 20 and the Wabash Invitational on September 27. The teams in these tourneys change at points, but I'm not aware of any changes yet.

So lets get this started no?

MERRILLVILLE INVITATIONAL
Teams: Portage, Wawasee, Lowell, Triton, Merrillville, Highland, Centerville
Last Season's Winner: Triton
Our Finish Last Year: 5th
Format: 5 Individual Tournaments with Point Values Determining Team Champion

What to Expect:
Historically, the best teams at this tournament have been Centerville and Portage. In the 2 years that Portage has been involved, they've stayed in the fight to win all the way to the final match. But this past year it was Triton that was the surprise winner. Also, Lowell had a good team this past year. Highland and Merrillville have historically been middle-of-the-pack, although Merrillville has at times had an excellent #1 singles player.

As for us, we've often managed to have individual champions in this tournament. In 2011, Blake Shetler won #2S. In 2012, Nathan Brendle won #1S and Abe Thorne won #3S. In 2013, Jesse Amstutz won #2S. However the team points have always alluded us.

In the coming year, Lowell should continue to be a good team. They return their #2 singles player as well as an All-District doubles team. Despite losing their top 3 players, Triton should bring back an experienced and good team. We can expect the other teams to be about the same as normal.

But my guess is that the young Centerville team from last year may come in as the favorite. We'll see. Each of these teams has great coaches. All these teams will get better. This tournament is always one of the most exciting days of the year for me. I can't wait.

WABASH INVITATIONAL
Teams: Wabash, Taylor, Eastern
Last Season's Winner: Bethany Christian
Our Finish Last Year: 1st
Format: 3 Dual Matches

What to Expect:
In the past two seasons, we have gotten shock wins at this tournament. Last season, Taylor (who eventually won the Kokomo Sectional) fell to us in the first round 3-2. I think they had been the favorites coming into the tournament. The year before, 2012, they were definitely the favorites, but their #1S player had a wedding to attend, and we were able to defeat their altered lineup and take the tournament win.

This coming year, Taylor returns their #2S, one of #1D and #2D. Wabash only returns 3 players and Eastern only returns 2. So my first thought is that Taylor will be the best of these teams, but with so little experience coming back, all of these teams will be going through transitions.

FINAL WORD:
I can't wait to get the season under way, and I can tell you, one of my hopes next year is that we challenge seriously for each of these trophies. Without a conference championship to shoot for, these tournaments offer individual and team championships as benchmarks for our team.

The best thing about the tournaments though is that we get to spend the whole day together. The tournament's work as "mini-tennis camps" for us at the end of the season. We eat together, sing together, root together. Let's be ready to enjoy these in the upcoming season!

Wednesday Opponent Overviews

Let's take an overview of the season next year, and then we'll go a little bit more in depth on each opponent in the next couple of posts. So just for fun, let me try and rank the opponents in order of difficulty for next year. Just for fun, because I don't really know what each match will have in store!

1. Concord
- Last year: Bruins won 4-1
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Jason Denton, #2S - Sean Purcell, #3S - Matt Kotva, #1D - T Cunningham, #1D - Tony Fenech, #2D - Bronson DuMont, #2D - Matt Ciesielski

2. Goshen
- Last year: Bruins won 4-1 (twice)
- Varsity Returners: #2S - Seth Koble, #3S - Adam Bratten, #3S - Nick Dandino?, #1D - Drew Hochstetler, #2D - Paul Johnson, #2D - Eli Metzler-Prieb, #2D - Sam Stegelmann, #2D - Sylas Buller
- JV Result: Redskins won 5-2

3. Taylor
- Last year: Bruins won 4-1
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Drew Hansen, #2S - Nate Gotshall, #3S - Logan Barnes, #1D - Cameron Clark, #2D - Jack Lipchik, #2D - Casey Glick
- JV Result: N/A

4. Northridge
- Last year: Bruins won 3-2
- Varsity Returners: #2S - Josh Garfein, #3S - AJ Thielking, #1D - Chris Robbins, #2D - Alex Radelich, #2D - Doug Jakubowicz
- JV Result: Raiders won 6-1

5. Fairfield
- Last year: Falcons won 3-2 and 4-1
- Varsity Returners: #2S - Josh Mullet
- JV Result: Falcons won 7-1

6. Triton
- Last year: Bruins won 4-1
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Jeff Ross, #2S - Pete Kauffman, #3S - Jackson Downing, #2D - Josh Shafer, #2D - Clay Yeo
- JV Result: Trojans won 4-2

7. Jimtown
- Last year: Bruins won 5-0
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Brett Aller, #3S - Chris Rasterdorf, #1D - Cole Peterson, #1D - Jake Ward, #2D - Augie Farwig, #2D - Austin Ward
- JV Result: N/A

8. Wabash
- Last year: Bruins won 3-2
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Justin Middleton, #2S - David Driscoll, #1D - Nate Price, #2D - Jack Stein
- JV Result: N/A

9. Westview
- Last year: Bruins won 4-1
- Varsity Returners: #3S - Khloe Christner, #1D - Nik Hostetler, #2D - Austin Schlabach, #2D - Devin Bontrager
- JV Result: Warriors won 6-1

10. Fremont
- Last year: Bruins won 5-0
- Varsity Returners: #2S - Matt Hoff, #3S - Matt Wilcox, #1D - Tyler Jenkins, #1D - Glen McClain, #2D - Kaleb Hayes
- JV Result: Eagles won 5-3

11. Columbia City
- Last year: Eagles won 3-2
- Varsity Returners: #3S - Derek Hinen, #2D - Gabe Boles
- JV Result: Eagles won 5-2

12. Bremen
- Last year: Bruins won 5-0
- Varsity Returners: #2S - Briley Bollenbacher, #2D - Austin Huff, #2D - Brad Foster
- JV Result: Lions won 4-2

13. Eastern
- Last year: Bruins won 3-2
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Connor Young, #3S - Austin Chase, #1D - Joel Coffman, #2D - Adam McKinney
- JV Result: N/A

14. NorthWood
- Last year: Bruins won 5-0
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Brennan Angle, #2S - Ben Zercher, #3S - Shawn Stahley, #1D - Tyler Rhoades, #1D - Jason Lynhart, #2D - Austin Sanders, #2D - Mitchell Keiser
- JV Result: Bruins won 5-1

15. Rochester
- Last year: Bruins won 5-0
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Aaron Stuart, #3S - Brandt Eutcheson, #2D - Taylor Beck
- JV Result: N/A

16. Tippecanoe Valley
- Last year: Bruins won 5-0
- Varsity Returners: #1S - Nick Kindig, #3S - Alex Newman, #1D - Kameron Larimer, #1D - Tanner Neely, #2D - Clayton Adamson, #2D - Robbie Groom
- JV Result: Bruins won

17. Prairie Heights
- Last year: Bruins won 5-0
- Varsity Returners: #3S - Nathan Clark, #1D - Tyler Carbone, #2D - Donald Cook
- JV Result: Bruins won 3-0

It looks like the competition will be good next year, with many of the better teams on our schedule residing within our very own Sectional. What do you think? Looking forward to getting back to matches?

Wednesday Opponent Overviews

Just to let anyone know who is interested, I've finished the opponent overviews for next season. Just click on the opponent you want to know about on the schedule at the side. Obviously, these are simply overviews, and things change throughout the summer, with players moving, new freshman moving up, old players working hard.

I hope these overviews actually inspire us. When we think of opponents, I hope that our first thought is whether we are working harder than them or not. Have we played more? Have we focused more? Do we love tennis and each other more?

I'm looking forward to the Open Court tonight. Enjoy the World Cup while we wait for Wimbledon next week!

Wednesday Opponent Overview

All Time Record vs. Tippecanoe Valley:

Classic Matches:

Top Players over the Years: Keith Kindig, Robby Hamman, James Makula, Aaron Foster, Trenton Newsome, Rosten Hamman, Brady Kinsel, Derrick Rose

Last Season Result: Rained Out.

Returning Varsity Players:
We don't know, we didn't see their varsity.

Top Returning JV Players:
We don't know, we didn't see their JV

Outlook: I don't really know what to expect in this match. For years, Tippecanoe Valley dominated us. Then, we turned it around and won a couple in a row. The past two years we haven't played because of the rain, but I get the feeling they haven't had the strongest teams. Regardless of their current talent level, it is always a good warmup for the Sectional, win or lose. I mean, by the end of the season you just get tired of practicing, and the Tippy Valley match gives us a chance to not have to just practice during that last week. I look forward to renewing our competition this year (praying for no rain).

Wednesday Opponent Overview

All Time Record vs. Eastern: 1-0

Classic Matches:

2009; Eastern 3, Bethany Christian 2
With the Wabash tournament in the balance, we played against a strong Eastern team. They had only lost once all season, and their #1 doubles had never been beaten. I didn't have a lot of hope. But Seth played one of his best matches, then Blake pulled out a 3rd set comeback. Then #1 doubles pushed it into a tiebreak. We finally fell in a close #2 doubles match, but it was the most proud I was of last year's team.

Top Players over the Years: We've only played once.

Last Season Result:Eastern 3, Bethany Christian 2

Returning Varsity Players:
#3S - Connor Young (lost to Blake Shetler, 7-6, 5-7, (7-10))
#1D - Noel Horvath (beat Kyle Miller/Austin Loucks, 7-6, 6-1)
#2D - Adam McKinney (beat Russell Klassen/Nick Rebec, 7-6, 7-5)

Top Returning JV Players:
We don't know, we didn't see their JV

Outlook: This should be another one of our awesome matches this year, one that will tell us where we are at as a team. These are the type of challenges that we will always need. We'll see how they move their lineup around, but right now it looks like they could be a little weak in the singles lineup, where we would matchup well. Of course, they could move Horvath from his highly successful doubles season into a singles position. That could change the complexion of the match, and make doubles even more important. Of course, we won't know much until the match happens, so we'll all have to come in on our toes!

Wednesday Opponent Overview

All Time Record vs. Taylor: 1-0

Classic Matches:

2009; Bethany Christian 4, Taylor 1
This is the only time we've played Taylor, and the doubles battles were great. It was especially rewarding to see Russell Klassen and Nick Rebec pull out a third set tiebreaker for a win at their position, while Kyle Miller and Austin Loucks downed a very athletic #1 doubles squad.

Top Players over the Years: We've only played once.

Last Season Result: Bethany Christian 4, Taylor 1

Returning Varsity Players:
#1S - Matt Brankle (lost to Seth Krabill; 3-6, 1-6)
#2S - Logan Barnes (lost to Ben Mast; 1-6, 1-6)
#3S - Drew Hansen (beat Blake Shetler; 6-4, 6-1)
#2D - Nathan Gotshall (lost to Russell Klassen/Nick Rebec; 7-6, 3-6, (7-10))

Top Returning JV Players:
We don't know, we didn't see their JV

Outlook: Taylor brings back as many varsity players as we do, but we were able to have success over most of them. The #3 singles spot will be a spot for us to measure ourselves against, to see how much we've improved. But hopefully this is a match where we can take advantage of the top of our lineup, and then gut out some wins at the lower spots. It will be important to make sure we are on top of our game when we play, because this tournament is a priority this year.

Wednesday Opponent Overview

All Time Record vs. Wabash: 0-1

Classic Matches:

2007; Wabash and Bethany Christian tie in Inaugural Wayne Tennis Invite
Both Wabash and Bethany easily dispatched opponents from FW Elmhurst and FW Wayne, and had split 4 positions between us headed into the last match of the day, the #2 doubles championship. Daniel Buschert and Matthew Amstutz won the first set, but fell in a second set tiebreaker and lost the third. We Wabash in points, but they took the trophy for winning 3 out of 5 against us.

2009; Wabash 3, Bethany Christian 2
This was a really great matchup, and it really came down to 2 great #2 singles players. Our #1 doubles played some of the best points they had all year, but couldn't beat a great team. Our #2 doubles definitely played their best, and won fairly easily. But it came down to a bad day for Ben Mast, as he dropped a third set tiebreak.

Top Players over the Years: Anthony Griffin, Frank Granger, Zach Sailors, Justin Middleton, Wesley Kosel, Ryan Richman , Ethan Powell

Last Season Result: Wabash 3, Bethany Christian 2

Returning Varsity Players:
#2S - Justin Middleton (beat Ben Mast; 2-6, 6-3, (10-8))
#2D - Trevor Patton/David Driscoll (lost to Russell Klassen/Nick Rebec; 3-6, 2-6)

Top Returning JV Players:
We don't know, we didn't see their JV

Outlook: It all depends on their JV. The #1 singles match should be pretty even, and the players they have returning from #2 doubles were good players who weren't having a great day. So they bring back strong varsity contributors. The match should be close. It all depends on something that we don't know, how strong will the rest of the team be? All this means for us is that we will need to be focused, because winning this match and this tournament is a definite goal this year.