Friday, August 1, 2014

Advanced Scouting 5.0: The Complete Picture

If you've been following the previous posts . . .

3.0 - Local Rivals
4.0 - Sectional Rivals

you'll have seen a preview and statistical breakdown of the opponents we play this year. In most of those matches, I used the WRS (Winners Returning Stat) to give a look at how close the match will be. As way of review, WRS simply is a measure of players who return to the team AND won their match in the previous season. If you want a full breakdown, see the example in Advanced Scouting 4.0.

This stat is actually really accurate in showing how close a match might be. The last season I truly used it was 2010, and it accurately predicted our 5 closest matches of the season. So, as a final way of fun for the preseason, let's use the stat to predict our matches. Which ones will be the closest and most difficult?

So here's the breakdown. Only Fairfield and Westview return more players who won their varsity matchups against us last year. However, on the flip side of those matches we won the JV matches handily.

NorthWood and Concord are both dead even matches. However, of those two NorthWood returns 6 of 7 varsity players and had a successful JV challenge against us.

Then we have a bunch of close matches where we have a slight advantage in returning players. Goshen stands out there as being a match where we actually lost 3 of the top 5 positions on JV, showing that Goshen will also have a deep, talented team.

I think what is amazing about this chart is the top of the chart. This shows that our closest matchups of the season should be Fairfield, Westview, NorthWood, Concord, and Goshen.

3 of the top 5 are in our Sectional. The other 2 are local rivals, followed closely by Northridge, another local rival. So here's the cool thing about the schedule. We'll play a bunch of close matches against teams that we know well. That should make for an epic season, win or lose. A number of memorable matches, moments, and opportunities for us to come together around one another.

It also means that north central Indiana tennis should be pretty good this season! Let's go get 'em, starting this Monday!

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