Tuesday, June 2, 2015

WRS Explanation

A note of explanation. I made up a statistic to help measure how close a match will be for us in the following season. I call it the WRS. It works like this. It works like this. In any given matchup, I look at three things.

1. How many of their players that return won their match? 
For every singles player that an opponent returns and won their match, we get a -1. For every doubles player that returns and won, we get a -0.5.

2. How many of our player that return won their match?
Same as above, but if we won the match we get a +1 or a +0.5.

To analyze the stat, the higher the score the easier the match should be for us. The lower the score, especially if it is negative, the harder a match will probably be.

Confused yet? It's actually simple, here's an example from last year, using Fremont.

Here's the score report:
#1S - Jesse Amstutz - 2-6, 1-6 - Blake Trusty (12)
#2S - Byeong Min Lim - 6-2, 7-5 - Logan Miller (11)
#3S - Sol Brenneman - 6-4, 5-7, 2-6 - Brandan Arnos (11)
#1D - Hans Miller/Simon Hurst - 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 - Wade Regedanz (10)/Evan Trusty (9)
#2D - Ryan Duckworth/Ethan Lapp - 6-1, 6-2 - Jeremy Seiler (11)/Matt Armstrong (11)

So at #1S, both players were seniors. So they don't return... no points awarded in the stat. At #2S, Byeong won, so that is +1 for the Bruins. At #3S, Brandon Arnos won, so -1 for the Bruins. After tallying singles, the stat is a 0.

At doubles, we get +0.5 for Simon winning and returning, and another 0.5 for Ethan winning and returning. 

If you add all that math up, the Fremont match is a +1. That means we should have a slight advantage in this matchup. That slight advantage doesn't tell the whole story though. Our players will be moving up positions and they return most of their team. This will end up being a tough match because of those factors.

Okay, that's a long explanation. If it doesn't make sense, don't worry. The simplified version is this...
- The higher the score, the more favored Bethany would be in the match this season.
- The lower the score, the more favored our opponent would be.

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