Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Advanced Scouting 3.0: Local Opponents

Advance Scouting
1. Tournaments
3. Local Opponents

A couple weeks ago, I began a series looking at what next season's opponents might look like. In the last two installments, we looked at our tournament opponents and some of our opponents who are further away. This week, we'll look at some of our local opponents.

I'll be using a stat called WRS to look at each matchup. You can find an explanation here. Let's jump in to some opponent analysis.

WRS: +1

When Do We Play: Aug. 25

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we defeated Concord 4-1. It was very much a case of our more experienced team getting the better of a less experienced opponent. By Sectional time, Concord had improved enough to win the Concord Sectional.

Who Do They Return: Almost everybody from their varsity. Crucially, they should return all three of their singles players. Will Boyer, a sophomore who played #1S last year as a freshman, is one of the stronger returning #1S players in the area. He defeated Jesse in three sets last year in a well battled match. Mitchell Boyer most likely returns at #2S. At #3S, Alex Dias lost to Sol last year without winning a game. However, by Sectional, I believe the Minutemen had moved Riley Huffer to #3S. So that may be a possibility during this season as well. Returning from doubles are both #2D players, Nathan Hermon and Braden Fish.

Projection: This is a team returning a lot of potential. Last year was a down regular season for the Minutemen, but they were able to turn it up and win their Sectional. That was an exciting event that no doubt got them excited for this season. It's a good bet that they've put some work in and are prepared for the new season. While we don't have as much experience, we did have a lot of success in this matchup last year, including in the JV ranks. This is another one of those matches that could go either way, and therefore should be a great learning opportunity for our team.

WRS: +1.5

When Do We Play: Aug. 18

How'd We Do Last Year: The Bruins defeated Northridge 5-0 last year, marking the only time in BC tennis history we've swept the match from the Raiders.

Who Do They Return: Again, this is a team that didn't have a lot of varsity experience last year. They had an unusually down year, but return 5 players from the match we played them in. Most promising is Simon Grevengoed, who played #2S last year but actually moved up to #1S for our match (because Northridge's normal #1S had been at a funeral). He challenged Jesse for the first set, before falling 6-0 in the second. But he has all the shots. They also return their #2D and #3S.

Projection: Again, this is a matter of who steps up to play when the match is on the line. We'll have two similarly aged teams, but there team has more varsity experience. It should be an interesting matchup at #1S, as both Simon Grevengoed and Byeong played #2S last year. I also am interested to see how we shape up against their doubles lineup. And as long as he's still playing, we should get to see our good friend Aadarsh Patel again. 

WRS: +2

When Do We Play: Sep. 8

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we defeated the Warriors 4-1, losing only at #1S, where Westview senior Stephen Gierek has now graduated.

Who Do They Return: They return 5 players from their varsity, and they are 5 quite talented players. Heading up that group of returnees is Andrew Yoder. Last year he played #1D, losing to Hans and Simon in our dual match but defeating them in the Individual Sectional. He played with 2 different partners in those matches, Jeryl Weaver in the loss and Zach Shrock in the win. Weaver and Schrock both return, along with last year's #3S player Trey Zabona and a #2D player Austin Hostetler. Talking to Westview's coach, I know that much like our team they have many questions about a lineup this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Yoder switching to #1S, where he will be quite successful. But, then again, perhaps he and Schrock will team up at #1D and make a push for further advancement in the Individual tournament.

Projection: This is a deceiving match because it looks like we have a huge advantage in players that won their matches and return to the team. But in reality, the Warriors return a lot of experienced players. I feel like this is a common theme this year, how quickly will our players become confident in playing varsity tennis. This is a match we can win. This is a match we could lose. These are the matches that make tennis season fun.

Elkhart Central
WRS: +0.5

When Do We Play: Sep. 17

How'd We Do Last Year: Last year, we pulled out a 3-2 win thanks to Sol's third set comeback at #3S.

Who Do They Return: #2S player Andrew Salmon looks to move up to #1S, and #3S Curtis Hill probably moves up to #2. That gives them two very solid singles players. #2D of Christian Lankford and Adam DeShone will probably move to #1D. They defeated Ethan and Ryan last year in a close match. That gives the Blue Blazers 4 returning varsity players.

Projection:  In what is a repeated theme in these previews, this match is going to be really close. We've got some good talent, and should be able to give the Blazers a run for their money but they have an extremely talented senior class. I think they'll be a motivated team this season as well, having lost on a Sectional title last season. This match will be a fantastic test. And it will reunite us with a tennis brother, now playing at Elkhart Central, Lucas! We can't wait to see him again!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Got some input? Feel free to post below!