Wednesday Numbers : 19%

Last year, we had 7 JV players make the jump to varsity. Actually, at different times 8 players played varsity who had played JV during the 2008 season. This meant that these players had to adjust. They had a very successful 2008 in the junior varsity ranks (like, undefeated) but varsity is obviously a step up in competitiveness and difficulty. But how much more difficult?

19% more difficult, to be precise. On average, a player going from JV to varsity sees their winning percentage fall 19% in their first season. For example, a player who won 79% of their JV matches would win 60% of their varsity matches in their first year.

Of course, this is an average. What changes this average? What makes some people struggle more and others actually win more on the varsity than they did on JV? Let's break that down and then look at the implications for our team next year.

Factor #1: How big the jump is...

Example: Ben Mast moved up the varsity ladder a full 7 places from 2008 to 2009. Seth Krabill moved up 7 as well. Blake Shetler, by the end of the season, had moved up 8 places! These players ended up with large differences in winning percentages. Ben saw his win percentage drop 34 points, Seth 20, and Blake 44. Much of this had to do with how far they were moving up. When the move is small (#1SJV --> #3S V, for example) the change is much less. In fact, Jonny Shenk actually ended up a percentage point higher when making the jump from high JV to low varsity.

Implication: We will have nobody making this big move this year, except for possibly Evan Grimes. He played matches at #1 doubles JV and #2 doubles JV, and could possibly be moving into those same spots on the varsity. Otherwise, we will have people moving from high JV positions to low varsity positions. Blake, Matt, and others should expect similar winning percentages if they make varsity positions.

Factor #2: How much work is put in...
Example: Austin Loucks made a huge jump last season, from #2DJV (or even #3DJV at times) to a regular #1 doubles player for the varsity. His win percentage only decreased by 8%. That is tiny. He worked his butt off in the offseason, as has been previously mentioned on this blog. Jonny Shenk, in 2007, played every single day that it was sunny in the spring, and actually won a higher percentage of his matches on the varsity than he had on the JV.

Implication: We've had fairly good work ethic among those who are moving up. Blake and Evan took lessons throughout the winter, and despite track practice have come to several open courts. Matt Ebersole swears he'll be working through lessons. Ike Lehman took some lessons. This is the part that we can control, so it must be the thing that we do. We can't control how far we'll have to jump up, that is dictated by graduation. But we can show up and play.

I know I beat that into the ground. But what a difference it makes!

I'm looking forward to this year. All the numbers point toward it being fantastic. Let's just take one example. Let's say that Blake does end up losing 19 percent more than this year. That means he'll still win 14-15 matches next season, with a winning percentage around 60%. And his work shows that number could be even higher.

I'm excited for that. Let's all get excited for that and began (or continue) to play!