Saturday, July 19, 2014

A Detailed Analysis of Last Year's Freshman

Our freshman last year had a remarkable season. I was updated the website today with their individual pages that will keep track of their matches through the years. You can find them on the side bar or listed here.

Brandon Nguyen
Bryce Miller
Byeong Min Lim
Daniel Robles
Jackson King
Jacob Gonsalves
Lane Miller
Matthew Peters
Simon Hurst

However, in going through their stats I was throughly impressed. So I decided to throw together some statistical analysis. Here's a couple of freshman records.


Top Ten: Most Wins in a Freshman Season
17 - Byeong Min Lim
16 - Simon Hurst
14 - Bryce Miller
13 - Lane Miller
12 - Hans Miller, Ben Mast
10 - Seth Krabill, Parth Patel, Blake Shetler, Sol Brenneman

Notice anything about this list? The top 4 all time for freshman wins were from last season. And the other people who dot the top of the list were "pretty" successful. Hans is going for most all time varsity victories this year. Ben Mast is one of 2 Bethany players to be named All-District. You know Seth, our all time varsity winning percentage leader (winning over 90% of his matches included an undefeated senior season). Parth was a three year varsity player. Blake had a 74% career varsity winning percentage. Sol Brenneman has just had a successful first full year at varsity and may have a super high winning percentage this year.

But, you might argue that this just looks at wins. This past year's freshman had more opportunities to rack up their wins than in past years because we played more JV matches. For example, we played the Jimtown and Fremont tournaments the past season, which we haven't always done. Well, one way to compare more fairly is to look at winning percentages.

Top Ten: Highest Winning Percentage in a Freshman Season (minimum 10 matches)
94.4% - Byeong Min Lim
87.5% - Bryce Miller
84.2% - Simon Hurst
83.3% - Blake Shetler
80.0% - Ben Mast
76.7% - Seth Krabill
72.7% - Luke Hostetter
72.2% - Lane Miller
70.5% - Hans Miller
66.7% - Russell Klassen

So when we break it down like that, not much changes. Lane moves a bit down the list, and Bryce and Simon trade places. But it's interesting to note that all the names stay in the top ten. Also, this list is a better indicator of future success. Blake, as said above, went 19-3 and 15-5 in his two varsity seasons. Ben Mast was All-District at #1 singles. Seth Krabill was undefeated at #2 singles that same season. Luke Hostetter was #1 singles for our Sectional title team. Hans you know. And Russell Klassen went 17-1 his senior season.

The other interesting thing to note is the positions played. Byeong, Ben, and Luke all played #1 singles for the JV their freshman year. Other high percentages, like Blake's and Russell's for example, were at #2 doubles JV. They would be comparable to Lane. But Bryce and Simon both played higher positions and had a higher winning percentage. Also, by the way, Jackson King was 66% winning percentage last year as a freshman, but only played 9 matches. Just below that was Brandon Nguyen at 65%. So two more close to the top ten!

What about what last year's freshman class accomplished as a class?


Highest Average Wins Per Player
9.8 wins - Class of 2011
9.0 wins - Class of 2017
7.8 wins - Class of 2014
6.5 wins - Class of 2007
4.8 wins - Class of 2012
4.6 wins - Class of 2015
4.3 wins - Class of 2016
4.0 wins - Class of 2009
2.1 wins - Class of 2010
1.2 wins - Class of 2013
0.0 wins - Class of 2008

Looking at all of the players in a particular freshman class, we can see that the average freshman doesn't win a lot of matches. In fact, overall the average number of wins for a freshman is just 5.1 wins. Last year's freshman class average was 4 higher than that. All but 2 of the freshman achieved that number of wins. As far as the average wins for the class, only higher than them was the class of 2011, which included Seth Krabill, Ben Mast, Kyle Miller and Russell Klassen - who as seniors went 18-3 as a team!

Highest Winning Percentage of a Freshman Class
73.6% - Class of 2017
70.9% - Class of 2011
58.3% - Class of 2009
57.6% - Class of 2012
48.1% - Class of 2007
47.0% - Class of 2014
45.5% - Class of 2015
37.1% - Class of 2016
36.6% - Class of 2010

This is a straight up representation of how successful teams have been. The 2011 class went 18-3 their senior year (losing all 3 of the matches 3-2 and unfortunately 2 of those to Fairfield, who won the Regional that season!) The 2009 class was our class that captured the Sectional Championship. The 2012 class was the other part of the 18-3 team as juniors. And look there at whose at the top. Last year's freshman, highest winning percentage of any class as freshman.

So what does this all mean? Nothing if the freshman class doesn't keep working. They are put in a good position, but it doesn't mean anything if they don't continue to take their improvement seriously.

But that's the good news right? We've continued to work throughout the offseason this year, hopefully it gets even more intense and focused in the coming season!

Daniel, Simon, Brandon, Lane, Bryce, Jackson, Jacob, Byeong - you are sophomores now. Follow up your initial success with confidence, effort and joy!

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