Saturday, September 14, 2019

#Throwback Thursdays - First Round Results

A note on how the simulations were performed. I used a website: ttps://minkukel.com/scripts/simulate-tennis-matches/.

From there, I had to develop a "strength" for player A. To determine this, I used win percentage. I took the higher win percentage and named them player A. Then I took the higher win percentage minus lower win percentage. I then divided this number by four. I then took this number and added it to .500 to determine the "strength" of player A. I determined that this was fair by a bunch of trial and error. Basically, it gave me some upsets, but not too many. So don't read too much into these fairly random results :-)

Without further ado, here's the #1 singles bracket:


The #1 singles bracket produced very few upsets. The only upset by definition was Joel King of 2004 taking out Nathan Brendle of 2011. This match would have been very interesting. Nathan was a very skilled player in 2011, but wasn't always in the dominant, competitive mindset. He developed that part in 2012, big time! Joel was maybe a little bit of the opposite, skilled but not ridiculously, but with a whole ton of belief and "never-say-die" spirit.

All of the matches and the scores were interesting. Ones that caught my eye were the fact that Luke playing himself ended in two pretty close sets. Luke also advanced his 2007 version. He and Joel King, and Byeong Min Lim were the three players to advance in two different years (although Byeong and Joel barely survived in at least one of their matches, needed third sets to dismiss Nathan and Ben respectively).

Again in the #1D bracket, the only upset result was the 9 seed over the 8 seed. There, Johnny and Jeremy from '08 pulled out a three set victory over Kyle Miller and Matt Ebersole. It makes sense though, because '08 was the year that Johnny hurt his back and didn't come back playing at his top level until the end of the season. In fact, it was that season that he and Jeremy pulled off their awe-inspiring (and "C'mon!" inspiring) upset of Penn when they busted out the I-formation. Maybe that's what they switched to in the second set of this one to take control.

Kyle got a win with Austin, surviving a second set tirebreak to defeat Bethany's lone Regional qualifiers of all-time, Jordan Mumaw and Seth Troyer from my first season. Most matches wrapped up in two close sets. The big exception to this rule was Hans and Simon from the '14 team. They ran away with a first set over Parth and Himal, but then lost a close second set. Simon and Hans were a little prone to big dramatic up and down swings during that season, but often pulled it off in the end. Same thing here.



Here the top seeds moved through fairly easily, setting up an intriguing "Seth v. Seth" match in the second round. It took Seth '09 three sets to deal with Wes Klassen. Wes was one of the players that I was really intrigued with as I set up these brackets, as I realized that he had much better records than I had remembered. He seemed to have given a really good fight in this make believe tournament too, pushing Seth to 3 sets. In Seth's two years at #2 singles, Seth only lost 1 match, and only went to 3 sets once (!)

Also moving through easily were top seeds Jared, Byeong, and Jesse. But Blake suffered a shock defeat to Liam. Blake was such a smooth competitor, and strong with in finishing points at the net as well. He had one of the surprise seasons jumping from #2D to #2S for his senior year. But Liam at #2S always had a flair for the dramatic. During that season, Liam had clinched two wins for our team by winning third set tiebreaks. Here against Blake, Liam took a second set tiebreak after having lost the first set. That suggests to me that he even saved some match points, because that just seems like a Liam thing to do... upping the dramatics!

Other interesting notes, the difference in one year of Jared's. The '07 version of Jared got beaten pretty soundly by Joel King. But the '08 version had no problem with Jonathon. Jared got vastly better between those two years, and I'll never forget why. He told me that he took the whole off-season to focus on split-step. I love that!

This bracket also sees the first of our current players, Caleb Shenk. He put up a good fight against Ethan Lapp, but ultimately goes out in two sets to Ethan. I could see Ethan's consistency and sneaky power wearing down last year's version of Caleb. But this year's version of Caleb, who is playing #1S, would be a different story. Speaking of different stories, on to #2 doubles!


Lot's of 9 over 8 upsets in these first rounds, and the trend continues as our current #2D team of Will and Tyson take a first round victory over Jordan and Jeremy. It was a third set win, and that reminded me of the third set win that Will and Tyson just had this year over Concord. Love seeing them play with the mindset of the aggressors, of fun and confidence. Jeremy was one of our most confident and joyful players, so its interesting to think of Will and Tyson getting that victory.

Everything else pretty much went according to seed. Two versions of the Daniel-Mikey team advanced, with the younger version needing 3 sets to advance. There were lots of 3 setters, which makes sense because we've had a lot of really good #2D teams. When I was looking at seeding, I was shocked that Michael and Jordan were the #14 seed, because I remember them pairing up as being a turning point for our #2D teams. They had some epic victories in tournaments and such to really start a tradition of good doubles teams for the Bruins, teams that won but also had fun playing together. 

So lot's of 3 sets matches between good doubles teams. Lane and Dustin defeated the Lane and Jackson combo in three sets. I think its funny to imagine an older Lane playing the younger one. Lane established so much more confidence in senior year, its not hard to see that as a reason his more experienced self would win in a third set. Plus, Dustin and Lane were 3rd set kings that year. Lots more good things to come in this bracket I'm sure.


#3S tends to be branded as the position of the dinker. So what's interesting is that we had no dinkers make it through in this bracket. Of the players advancing to the second round, only Jonny Shenk would maybe be classified as a defensive player. But even then, he was far too much of a well-rounded player to be a dinker. On the other had, Sol, Abe, Philip and Nathan were definitely aggressive and attacking players. 

The best matches here looked to be the 3 setters, like Philip over Casey. Casey was such an inspirational story for our team. He transferred back from Northridge his junior year, and slotted into #2D halfway through the season. He played 2 matches and then got in a motor bike accident, really badly injuring his leg. In fact, his senior year he still walked with a bit of a limp, but he played #3S. Philip was an inspiration too, going from a JV career of 10-23 for his first three years to a varsity record of 12-11 his senior year. He put in tons of work. It paid off here with a three set victory, despite getting bageled in the second set.

Wes and Nathan both had to fight back from a set down in their matches. Wes defeated Ike, who  was one who was a hard fighter but sometimes didn't have the finishing shots. Wes's consistent forehands wore him down. Nathan was playing Ben Shenk, from my first year as coach. Nathan's shaky double faults may have cost him the first set against Ben's consistency, but then his well-drilled skill pulled out the next two sets.

So onto the next round at #3S as well. Two Sol's and two Jonny's remain in the bracket, so we'll see what the next round holds, both for #3S and all the positions, on Thursday, September 19. See you then!



No comments:

Post a Comment

Got some input? Feel free to post below!